fear and loathing.
Nov. 3rd, 2004 12:23 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
burnunit"You could strike sparks anywhere. There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning. And that, I think, was the handle - -that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn't need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting - -on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark - -the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back." - Hunter S. Thomspon, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
2002, I knew the tide had turned. I knew it the way you sense a main era coming on. I knew it the way you feel the first stirrings of morning somewhere. There've been doubts along the way, as always, but I knew it had changed.
At 12:20 a.m. this morning, I have reached the conclusion that I was wrong.
http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/general/by_county/pres/OH.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS is a great link. If you go in there and change the state abbreviation-- the part that looks like /pres/OH.html to have any other state abbreviation where the OH is, you get a running count by precinct of vote reports. You can get it from any state. I've watched Ohio and Wisconsin for the last two hours. At about 12:20, I determined the average number of votes by precinct was about 475. With 1456 precincts remaining, John Kerry was behind 2,452,234 to 2,335,261. If those numbers hold, the approximate number of remaining votes was 691600 and I see that as an absolute maximum the real number is probably something less. Anyway, if the numbers broke for Kerry at 59% of those numbers (wild estimates), he'd finish at something like 2,743,305 and Bush would have 2,735,790. It's not breaking that way. Fox has called it. NBC called it. I think PBS called it. By now the only laggards are CBS and ABC.
At 1243, the page noted above showed exactly 1000 precincts remaining, with raw counts 2,565,498 to 2,469,907 favoring Bush. That means an average of 480/precinct and a target number of 60% minimum remaining to go for Kerry.
At 1254 the number goes to 62% required.
Minnesota did our part. Wisconsin is called too close, but I think it's going to finish for Kerry. New Mexico is looking Bush-like by the yahoo charts I'm using, but there's some counties that supposedly will go for Kerry. Iowa has a hundred precincts left to report and it looks like that's going to finish too close, leaning Kerry. Nevada will finish JFK. My final count is 274-264 in the electoral college for Bush. (at 109 am, my ohio remaining number is something like 65%)
The ABSOLUTE best case scenario right now looks like 269-269 with challenges on provisional ballots in Ohio.
If the number of provisional ballots pending is greater than the margin of official ballots, Ohio has pronounced it won't call the race but will wade thru the impending nightmare. The fate of the free world, no indeed the entire world, hinges on provisional ballots?
peter jennings just blathered something about some reporter asking Kerry if he'd consider conceding "for the good of the country" or if he'd plan to challenge, for the same reason.
The only thing right now that he could do for the good of the country would be to somehow produce a stack of ballots in Florida approximately 700,000 high.
1:15 the ohio sec of state is talking about provisional ballots. he estimates 175,000 provisional ballots. according to him, in 2000, 90% of the provisionals were "good". I'm going to crunch numbers
120. ABC says if NM, IA, NV go bush and HI, MI, WI go Kerry, it would be 266-252. in which case, whoever wins Ohio is President.
125. 90% of 175K is 157500. in the yahoo number scenarios I've already described, that's approx. twice the margin of victory if Bush gets 46% of remaining max potential
127: the 120 abc numbers are kooky, though they'd be awesome. I think best case goes 269-269. in which case it goes to bush (electoral ties go to the House)
130 John Edwards is about to speak. I hear he just lost his senate seat, incidentally.
136 - about 120,000 provisional ballots is the count . bush's lead is currently 126,000. the provisional ballot count will take 11 days. they use punch ballots in Ohio. yeah, punch ballots. we don't get much more thoroughly fucked by the GOP spin cycle than this.
141 - my Ohio remaining max potential finish percentage just went to 86.3%. There is NO chance this will happen. We now go to provisionals. hello lawyers.
153 - Giuliani says it's for the good of the country that Kerry concede. How? It's good for the country that all the votes not get counted?
This is rendered horrifically moot by this fact: George W. Bush could win the popular vote. Not moot because the popular vote is more important, but psychologically that hurts me, scars me, wounds me incredibly deeply. The majority of voters in this country believe George Bush is the right man? Why was this election even close? Dozens of millions of people believe in George Bush. WHY??
Because America belongs to Satan
206 am. Thanks generation X (that's me, us, we) you dumb fuckers! http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/225719/807
216 am. Time to arm yourselves. The official spin begins with America's Mayor (Giuliani) and the party line is simply this: The Lawyers aren't going to erase a hundred and twenty five thousand votes. We are at war and for the good of the country we need John Kerry to concede as fast as possible.
If you are still reading this Livejournal, you need to prepare to combat this perception
The provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
This process will take as long as it takes. Estimates give us 11 days. Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted. This phrase needs to get into the media stream by any means necessary immediately, before the right hijacks the spew with its version of "lawyers can't erase 125,000 votes". Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted. Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
Now go spread that around the net and get it onto talk radio somehow. Get it into the newspapers. help help, Lady Liberty is drowning!
3:01 A.M. 111 precincts unreported. By the math model I described above, if Kerry gets 100% of the maximum remaining potential estimated votes of non-provisional ballots, his pending vote total is 91621 fewer than George Bush's. He'll get a lot closer to 60%. Yeah.
The provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
3:05 a.m. Peter Jennings just called the race for John Thune with 99% of precincts reporting and a lead of some 8700 votes. That last 1% is not 9000 voters, believe me. My home state has decided it no longer needs to send democrats to get what it wants and has embraced fully its republican destiny. This ends me.
I am exhausted. I am sadder about politics than I have ever been. I am so broken and fearful for the very life of my little girl, I cannot see a clear future for her now. I cannot see a future anything like I used to for any of us. At 310 a.m. on Nov 3, I have only the barest spark of hope (and it's not in provisional ballots, I hold them up as the rightful conclusion of due process which must be upheld as the rule of law in this country, they are not my hope). Today I saw people, like a celebration of people in my dear beloved Minneapolis, hungry for democracy and change. There were people...
My baby is awake and weeping- why won't she sleep?? It's as if she knows. I kid you not...
I am so weary and sorrowful and I am nearly shattered and I wanted so much to be able to sing. I want to sing so badly, but we are so beaten down and our future is so bitterly carved, our names written in blood on foreign sands.
Thus, into the wilderness.
ein feiste burg ist unser Gott
ein gute wehr und waffen
2002, I knew the tide had turned. I knew it the way you sense a main era coming on. I knew it the way you feel the first stirrings of morning somewhere. There've been doubts along the way, as always, but I knew it had changed.
At 12:20 a.m. this morning, I have reached the conclusion that I was wrong.
http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/general/by_county/pres/OH.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS is a great link. If you go in there and change the state abbreviation-- the part that looks like /pres/OH.html to have any other state abbreviation where the OH is, you get a running count by precinct of vote reports. You can get it from any state. I've watched Ohio and Wisconsin for the last two hours. At about 12:20, I determined the average number of votes by precinct was about 475. With 1456 precincts remaining, John Kerry was behind 2,452,234 to 2,335,261. If those numbers hold, the approximate number of remaining votes was 691600 and I see that as an absolute maximum the real number is probably something less. Anyway, if the numbers broke for Kerry at 59% of those numbers (wild estimates), he'd finish at something like 2,743,305 and Bush would have 2,735,790. It's not breaking that way. Fox has called it. NBC called it. I think PBS called it. By now the only laggards are CBS and ABC.
At 1243, the page noted above showed exactly 1000 precincts remaining, with raw counts 2,565,498 to 2,469,907 favoring Bush. That means an average of 480/precinct and a target number of 60% minimum remaining to go for Kerry.
At 1254 the number goes to 62% required.
Minnesota did our part. Wisconsin is called too close, but I think it's going to finish for Kerry. New Mexico is looking Bush-like by the yahoo charts I'm using, but there's some counties that supposedly will go for Kerry. Iowa has a hundred precincts left to report and it looks like that's going to finish too close, leaning Kerry. Nevada will finish JFK. My final count is 274-264 in the electoral college for Bush. (at 109 am, my ohio remaining number is something like 65%)
The ABSOLUTE best case scenario right now looks like 269-269 with challenges on provisional ballots in Ohio.
If the number of provisional ballots pending is greater than the margin of official ballots, Ohio has pronounced it won't call the race but will wade thru the impending nightmare. The fate of the free world, no indeed the entire world, hinges on provisional ballots?
peter jennings just blathered something about some reporter asking Kerry if he'd consider conceding "for the good of the country" or if he'd plan to challenge, for the same reason.
The only thing right now that he could do for the good of the country would be to somehow produce a stack of ballots in Florida approximately 700,000 high.
1:15 the ohio sec of state is talking about provisional ballots. he estimates 175,000 provisional ballots. according to him, in 2000, 90% of the provisionals were "good". I'm going to crunch numbers
120. ABC says if NM, IA, NV go bush and HI, MI, WI go Kerry, it would be 266-252. in which case, whoever wins Ohio is President.
125. 90% of 175K is 157500. in the yahoo number scenarios I've already described, that's approx. twice the margin of victory if Bush gets 46% of remaining max potential
127: the 120 abc numbers are kooky, though they'd be awesome. I think best case goes 269-269. in which case it goes to bush (electoral ties go to the House)
130 John Edwards is about to speak. I hear he just lost his senate seat, incidentally.
136 - about 120,000 provisional ballots is the count . bush's lead is currently 126,000. the provisional ballot count will take 11 days. they use punch ballots in Ohio. yeah, punch ballots. we don't get much more thoroughly fucked by the GOP spin cycle than this.
141 - my Ohio remaining max potential finish percentage just went to 86.3%. There is NO chance this will happen. We now go to provisionals. hello lawyers.
153 - Giuliani says it's for the good of the country that Kerry concede. How? It's good for the country that all the votes not get counted?
This is rendered horrifically moot by this fact: George W. Bush could win the popular vote. Not moot because the popular vote is more important, but psychologically that hurts me, scars me, wounds me incredibly deeply. The majority of voters in this country believe George Bush is the right man? Why was this election even close? Dozens of millions of people believe in George Bush. WHY??
Because America belongs to Satan
206 am. Thanks generation X (that's me, us, we) you dumb fuckers! http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/225719/807
216 am. Time to arm yourselves. The official spin begins with America's Mayor (Giuliani) and the party line is simply this: The Lawyers aren't going to erase a hundred and twenty five thousand votes. We are at war and for the good of the country we need John Kerry to concede as fast as possible.
If you are still reading this Livejournal, you need to prepare to combat this perception
The provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
This process will take as long as it takes. Estimates give us 11 days. Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted. This phrase needs to get into the media stream by any means necessary immediately, before the right hijacks the spew with its version of "lawyers can't erase 125,000 votes". Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted. Say it with me again, the provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
Now go spread that around the net and get it onto talk radio somehow. Get it into the newspapers. help help, Lady Liberty is drowning!
3:01 A.M. 111 precincts unreported. By the math model I described above, if Kerry gets 100% of the maximum remaining potential estimated votes of non-provisional ballots, his pending vote total is 91621 fewer than George Bush's. He'll get a lot closer to 60%. Yeah.
The provisional ballot verification process must be honored and those votes must be counted.
3:05 a.m. Peter Jennings just called the race for John Thune with 99% of precincts reporting and a lead of some 8700 votes. That last 1% is not 9000 voters, believe me. My home state has decided it no longer needs to send democrats to get what it wants and has embraced fully its republican destiny. This ends me.
I am exhausted. I am sadder about politics than I have ever been. I am so broken and fearful for the very life of my little girl, I cannot see a clear future for her now. I cannot see a future anything like I used to for any of us. At 310 a.m. on Nov 3, I have only the barest spark of hope (and it's not in provisional ballots, I hold them up as the rightful conclusion of due process which must be upheld as the rule of law in this country, they are not my hope). Today I saw people, like a celebration of people in my dear beloved Minneapolis, hungry for democracy and change. There were people...
My baby is awake and weeping- why won't she sleep?? It's as if she knows. I kid you not...
I am so weary and sorrowful and I am nearly shattered and I wanted so much to be able to sing. I want to sing so badly, but we are so beaten down and our future is so bitterly carved, our names written in blood on foreign sands.
Thus, into the wilderness.
ein feiste burg ist unser Gott
ein gute wehr und waffen