Okay listen up. The Bradley effect. You're all wooried about it. Fine. But don't let it stop you from making calls and knocking doors. Sheeesh.
1. The "measured" historical examples of the Bradley effect show changes in the vote count that are smaller than the current margin Barack* holds in national polls.
2. There wasn't even a Bradley effect for Bradley! When he was running for gov of CA, Bradley's internal polling reflected a dead heat. Candidates don't usually publish polls that aren't favorable so the only public polls showed Bradley ahead and suddenly there was this surprise when he lost which they then blamed on people lying to polltakers because of race. However there were flaws in those polls' methods! Bradley's people were not surprised by the outcome and did not blame it on racism.
2a. Also, that was in 1982 and a lot of things really are different now, 26 years later.
3. People who say they aren't voting for Barack because he's black don't count in the "bradley effect" because those people were telling pollsters the truth. They number about six percent and are already counted out against Barack's total projection.
4. The number of people voting for Barack because he's the black candidate is about nine percent.
5. There is a small number --1% or less-- of people who are openly racist and voting for Obama anyway. Yes, these are the people who say to canvassers, "we're voting for the nigger." They're out there and they're real. They will shave points (or tenths) off the "oh we're voting Obama (but not)" crowd.
This adds up to a few points for McCain. He doesn't need a few points, he needs a lot. He doesn't have the money to drive the turnout operations Bush had and he's not going to get it.
It's not in the bag but all y'all need to sack up! Make calls knock doors drive to polls most of all vote. Yes we can.
* I call him Barack because we tight.
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